Mr. Nomaan Merchant, Chair
n-merchant@northwestern.edu


Throughout the past sixty years, no world region has experienced more political and economic turmoil than the Middle East. Some of the many issues plaguing states in the Middle East include repeated human rights violations, suppression of civil liberties and democracy, and numerous wars between countries. The addition of nuclear weapons to this region has further destabilized the region, as six nations possess some sort of nuclear program. For some nations in the Middle East, the nuclear threat is a key tool in foreign diplomacy, but for others, nuclear weapons pose a grave threat to their citizens. Most recently, Iran continues to expand its nuclear program against the wishes of the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Although its president insists that Iran’s nuclear research is peaceful, the United States has demanded Iran cease its nuclear program.

Six nations in the Middle East have varying levels of nuclear capability:

Egypt began developing nuclear technology in the late 1950s but does not appear to possess any nuclear weapons and signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1981. Egypt has supported the establishment of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East.

Iran acknowledged in 2004 that it produced centrifuges to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. According to the United States, Iran hopes to be able to develop nuclear weapons using domestic resources, and many experts say Iran could succeed in doing so by the end of this decade. Iran, on the other hand, maintains that its nuclear research is strictly geared towards energy purposes but also asserts that it has the right to possess weapons to counter Israel’s arsenal.

Iraq started developing a nuclear program in the early 1970s and by the start of Operation Desert Storm in 1991 was one to three years away from building a nuclear weapon. After its subsequent defeat, UN and IAEA inspectors dismantled Iraq’s nuclear facilities and equipment. An investigation conducted by the Iraq Survey Group (ISG) after Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 concluded that deposed leader Saddam Hussein had not begun a new program but created plans to do so once international sanctions were lifted.

Israel possesses the most advanced nuclear arsenal in the Middle East with 100-200 nuclear weapons according to some estimates. Its first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, secretly created the program in the 1950s. Israel has not signed the NPT and says it will not disarm unless peace is achieved in the region.

Libya renounced its nuclear program in December 2003 and has pledged its support for the NPT. Libya is a signatory to the Treaty of Pelindaba (1996), which established a nuclear-free zone in Africa. Libya continues to possess a Soviet-supplied nuclear reactor, but has pledged to dismantle its programs of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Syria has expressed a desire to acquire nuclear and biological weapons mainly in response to the arsenal of its neighbor Israel. However, there is little evidence Syria is financially capable of starting an active nuclear weapons program, and its one nuclear reactor meets IAEA safeguards.

As a committee, you must address the underlying causes of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and discuss ways to resolve them. This is an extremely delicate issue and is an issue that the world has discussed for decades. What measures can Disec take that will lead to peace and political stability in the region?


www.nti.org

“Devoted and Defiant: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says he doesn’t want nuclear weapons. The world is suspicious. How dangerous is he?” Newsweek, Feb. 13, 2006

“Many fear Iran would use nukes against U.S., Israel” USA Today, Feb. 14, 2006